Parental Psychological Control, Peer Support, and School Engagement as Predictors of Mental-Health Trajectories in Conflict-Affected Nigerian Early Adolescents

Abstract

In Makurdi Metropolis, Benue State, Nigeria—a region severely impacted by farmer-herder conflicts and large- scale internal displacement—secondary school students experience elevated risks of anxiety, depression, substance use, and early sexual debut amid rising adolescent HIV prevalence. This three-wave longitudinal cohort study (2022–2024) followed 300 early adolescents (aged 10–12 at baseline) from six public schools, using culturally adapted self-report questionnaires to examine how parental psychological control, peer support, and school engagement predict subjective well-being (SWB) and mental health trajectories. Latent growth mixture modelling revealed three distinct SWB trajectories: Stable High (40%), Declining (35%), and Recovering (25%). Higher parental psychological control significantly increased anxiety and depression and lowered SWB, whereas stronger peer support and school engagement consistently reduced internalising problems and enhanced well- being. Displacement trauma and low HIV knowledge markedly raised the odds of substance use and early sexual debut. Quasi-experimental school-based emotional regulation programmes and parental training workshops significantly reduced anxiety and improved SWB, with strongest effects among girls and displaced students. These findings underscore parental control and displacement as major risk factors and peer support and school engagement as powerful protective factors. Scalable recommendations include integrating mental health and HIV education into school curricula, delivering parental training through churches, and establishing peer mentorship programmes to foster resilience and prevent risk behaviours in conflict-affected Nigerian adolescents.